Insights

Insights on European power markets, from a former power trader: market design, short-term trading, batteries and energy procurement.

Free, on Substack.

  1. Buy vs build in the age of AI

    Build what differentiates you, buy what is standard. AI makes in-house builds faster and prototyping earlier, and adds a new choice: which AI model to build on.

  2. Switzerland moves to 15 minutes: what to expect?

    From 3 November 2026, Swiss day-ahead prices are set per quarter-hour. Expect a sawtooth price pattern, fewer planned imbalances in ramp hours and more value for batteries. Cross-border capacity stays hourly for now.

  3. Nine months of single imbalance pricing in Switzerland: how has the market responded?

    Since the switch, Swiss system imbalance is down 38%, intraday volume has more than doubled and mFRR activation has halved. The open gap: downward flexibility at midday.

  4. How much can you scale a trading strategy in the short-term power markets?

    Short-term power markets limit how far a strategy can scale: other algorithms see large orders, and trades activate physical assets that move imbalance prices.

  5. Two forces shaping the power markets

    Renewables add volatility and batteries absorb it: the EU battery fleet has grown tenfold since 2021, to around 77 GWh. The gap between the two drives intraday prices.

  6. Need for Speed

    Latency is an undervalued edge for trading desks, especially the pre-trade chain from forecast update to order. In thin markets, speed becomes risk management.

  7. Alphabet's Energy Strategy: A Portfolio Approach to Powering the AI Race

    Alphabet buys power as a portfolio: over 22 GW of clean energy agreements since 2010, the acquisition of Intersect Power, and long-term technology bets.

  8. The Great Battery Decoupling: Falling Prices, Rising Stakes

    Lithium rose 56% in 2025, yet turnkey battery systems fell 31% to $117/kWh. Overcapacity, LFP and vertical integration explain the gap.

  9. Switzerland's move to a single imbalance price: a market design shift worth watching

    Since 1 January 2026, being out of balance in the right direction is rewarded. Forecasting, intraday trading and flexibility become core capabilities for balance groups.

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